Hedge funds are not buying? At least some of them.

hello,

The recently published the latest reports and summaries positions in the portfolios worth noting the two perhaps best known funds in the world.

I mean, among other things controlled by Warren Buffett's holding company Berkshire Hathaway, which at June 30 this year, had $ 55 billion in cash patiently waiting for buying opportunities.

In turn, the George Soros Fund, built nominally worth $ 1.3 billion position in put options on the S&P500 Index, allowing to earn a possible decrease in this Index. At the end of the second quarter was the largest position in the portfolio of Soros Fund Management constituting 17 percent of assets.

 

chart 1. Number of put options on the S&P500 in the portfolio of Soros Fund Management (thousand pcs.)

 source: SEC

In addition, I want to show how the summary trading with volume. 15-session average is at its lowest level during the entire bull market. Even at the beginning of 2012 it was about 70% higher.

There's no one to buy the shares, but still less investor sells them.

 

chart 2. SP500 Index with volume; 2014-08-28

regards,

oscarjp

Outflow of cash from the Warsaw Stock Exchange in July.

hello,

welcome, after a short break due to my holiday leave. During my absence in the markets has happened a lot but I assume that those reading my entries are people that continuously read information and economic data so I will not come back to them.

I decided to analyze the Polish capital market which occurred in July. This is a continuation of an entry dated 28 July. Link below.

The main reasons for declines on the WSE in June

In the previous post I showed that the Open Pension Funds in June "sold shares of companies listed on the domestic regulated market and bonds convertible into shares of these companies, and listed on the market pre-emptive rights and rights to shares, on value of PLN 1.85 bilion." Where a large part of it was invested in bank deposits.

Unfortunately, in July, the outflow of cash from the Polish stock market has intensified. Throughout the month of July funds sold shares worth about 5 billion PLN. In addition, we recorded a cash outflow from investment funds focusing on the Polish stock market. In July, investors paid out from them almost 500 million PLN more than they had paid. It is also the lowest balance of sales in this segment by March this year.

chart 1. Behavior of Indexes in July; 2014-08-21

In the analyzed of Indexes, only NASDAQ100 ended the month above the line while Polish Indexes recorded declines in around 5 - 6 percent.

regards,
oscarjp

29. Summary of the trades (July 15th, 2014 - July 31st, 2014)

hello,

It is time for a summary of all transactions are still open from the previous summary and new which I wrote during the last 2 weeks of July.

Below links that refer to each of them.

trade 1 - USD/CAD

trade 2 - EUR/USD

trade 3 - fSP500

trade 4 - fSP500 LONG

KGHM recommendation

trade 1.

This is the Trade exactly from the seventh of July, which was closed exactly on August 1 a few minutes after 11:00 using order "take profit" at a price 1.0939. At the moment, I expect slight descent down, then I will recommend next wave of growth.

trade 2.

Recommendation appeared on the day of the seventeenth of July. The transaction is still open with the possibility of reaching the 1.3325 where I set the order "take profit". I chenge ofcourse my "stop loss". now is 1.3480.

trade 3.
The transaction number three presented two scenarios. The first downward and the other upward. If the price does not come until the indicated levels was worth it to take a short position. According to the scenario, the transaction was closed.

trade 4.

The transaction referred to also in the same entry. We have come to the level so I decided to take a long position. According to the scenario number one.

KGHM recommendation

Recommendation is still short, but without the transaction.

And according to the tradition the whole statement in the summary table.

Summary of trades

best regards,
oscarjp

TA and DCF of Bogdanka

Hi,

Just started an August. So I think that is a good time to have a second short analysis of a public company from WIG30 Index.

Lubelski Wegiel "Bogdanka" SA is one of the leading producers of coal in Poland, outstanding against the industry in terms of financial performance, efficiency coal mining and investment plans assuming making of new fields.

Sold by the Company Coal energy is mainly used for the production of electricity, heat and cement production. The Company's customers are mainly industrial companies, especially companies operating in the electricity industry located in the eastern and north-eastern Poland.

August 20th, the company will publish the financial statements for the first half of 2014.

chart 1. quick liquidity ratio, 2014-08-01

The value of this ratio should oscillate in the region of 1.00. This means that in this case the company does not cover in 100% of its obligations as they fall due.

chart 2. current liquidity ratio, 2014-08-01

Indicator calculates the ratio of total current assets to current liabilities.

chart 3. the rate of recovery, 2014-08-01

Non-current assets + long-term liabilities to non-current assets. The level of this ratio should not fall below the level of 1.00 The lower level indicates that the financing of assets by current liabilities.

chart 4. debt to equity ratio, 2014-08-01

Growth rate is greater involvement of external financing in relation to the sources of their own.

chart 5. cover liabilities by equity, 2014-08-01

This ratio shows what the company's dependence on foreign capital, as well as compares debt companies with capital invested by shareholders. It shows how the size of the debt attributable to shareholders every zloty contribution. Since this index is well illustrated by the company's ability to repay liabilities. Too low index values ​​may indicate a high risk of loss.

chart 6. ratio net debt/EBITDA, 2014-08-01

calculated as the ratio of net financial debt to operating result with amortization and depreciation (EBITDA) for the last 12 months.

chart 7. TA of Bogdanka, 2014-08-01

At present company's share price is a lateral trend with a slight downward slope. In connection with the appearing negative attitudes on the market can be expected to achieve yet another wave around in 98 - 100 PLN where wy will should buy stocks.

My DCF Model indicates 144 - 152 PLN with probability of 79-81%.

So, my recommendation now is WAIT

When reaching the higher level than the 121 - 123 PLN, change the recommendations LONG.

regards,

oscarjp

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