there is a new tab - "Shares analysis"

hello,

Attention. Brief information. From 28 July when appeared entry for the analysis of mining company KGHM I decided to expand the scope of the publication on my blog by adding a bookmarks "Shares analysis".

As a reminder, the first analysis will find <here>.

Regarding the scope of the publication. At first I decided to limit ourselves to companies quoted on the Polish capital market.

Thank you for your attention.

best regards,

oscarjp

Macroeconomic indicators as they go down - or is it just shortness of breath ?

hello,

 

Continuing the entries about Polish stock exchange and the economy, today I would like to encourage you to analyze the Current Issues of economic activity.

 

link

currently implementing a second scenario envisaged on 9 June on my blog.

 

In the current analysis, I propose to focus on economic indicators because it had recently published the latest readings and the readings were very consistent in terms of direction of change. This direction is now downward. Due to the historical relations can be considered that this phenomenon is at least in part explains the analogous signs of weakness on the WSE.

 

Following is a brief list of the most subjective of me Current Issues of indicators describing the situation in the Polish economy.

 



chart 1. Industrial Production Y/Y; 2014-07-30



chart 2. Industrial Production M/M; 2014-07-30



chart 3. Retail Sales Y/Y; 2014-07-30



chart 4. Retail Sales M/M; 2014-07-30



chart 5. Manufacturing PMI; 2014-07-30

PMI disappointed again. PMI is an indicator regarding the situation in the industry and is not hard data, however, the signals sent by the related to whole economy. It is not only that the reading fell below the expectations of economists, but most of all is that bad luck was confirmed. Index was at the lowest of 11 months. Previously, this kind of signals we have seen in the years 2000, 2004, 2007 and 2011. In three of these four cases, investors watched for some time been developing a negative scenario for the stock market, but that would not be over.

 

In addition, the sanctions imposed against Russia by the United States and the European Union within the conflict of war with Ukraine could plunge Russia and push in the financial crisis. In addition, Russia may start to defend by imposing an embargo on various imported products. Russia imposed an embargo on Polish fruits and vegetables.


regards,
oscarjp

TA and DCF of KGHM; my recommendation

hello,

 

Below I posted my technical analysis of KGHM with with current quotations for copper futures expiring in September.

 

According to my analysis, we reached significant levels which are 130 - 131 PLN. The current correction which started on March 17 can be described as an ABC correction where wave C equals 100% of wave A.

 

In the case when stock finisz the sessions day above 131 PLN and the establishment of a new short-term highs, should take into account the change of describing the current correction.

 

 

chart 1. technical analysis of KGHM, Daily, 2014-07-28

 

The futures chart, it is clear that copper prices were not able to knock out new highs in the medium-term trend and noted decrease in the regions in which at the moment they are. In the case observed in the Chinese market bubble in the real estate market and as a result the pumping of GDP only thanks to government procurement can conclude that the price does not reach new highs should see lower prices.

 

chart 2. Copper futures, H1, 2014-07-28 

 

 

My DCF Model indicates 91 - 102 PLN with probability of 81-83%.

So, my recommendation now is SHORT with SL 133.30 PLN

 

 

best regards,

oscarjp

 

 

The information contained in this publication is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Any opinion offered herein reflects oscarjp-chrimatistikos current judgment and may change without notice. Users acknowledge and agree to the fact that, by its very nature, any investment in shares, stock options and similar and assimilated products is characterised by a certain degree of uncertainty and that, consequently, any investment of this nature involves risks for which the user is solely responsible and liable.

the main reasons for declines on the WSE in June

hello,

 

Today's entry, I decided to dedicate the home market which is the Warsaw Stock Exchange. And exactly what were the reasons recorded declines in June.

 

In the said month, the correlation between the U.S. and European Indexes was surprisingly small. On the chart below clearly shows that only SP500 and Nasadaq100, closed quotation above in comparison to the end of May.

 

 

chart 1. Behavior of Indexes in June, 2014-07-28

 

Factors can be multiplied. It is certainly among them tense geopolitical situation in relation to the conflict in Ukraine. It is Microcameras scandal, which wavered Rankings government and questioned the independence of the central bank.

 

But one of the main reasons for such a poor condition of the Polish stock exchange outflow of capital was in the possession, which are Open Pension Funds.

 

According to published information provided by pension funds show that during a June, sold shares of companies listed on the domestic regulated market and bonds convertible into shares of these companies, and listed on the market pre-emptive rights and rights to shares, on value of PLN 1.85 bilion.

 

This money is for the most part namely PLN 1.08 billion were invested in bank deposits in the Polish currency.

 

Another part of which is PLN 0.36 billion was invested in bonds and other debt securities issued by companies listed on the domestic regulated market

 

PLN 0.23 billion were invested in shares of companies listed on a foreign regulated market and bonds convertible into shares of these companies, and listed on the market pre-emptive rights and rights to shares. So speaking colloquially in shares traded on the foreign markets.

 

It should be noted that the total OPF have invested funds in the Polish stock market of 120 billion PLN and the outflow of capital in the last month accounted for less than 2 percent.

 

best regards,

oscarjp

fSP500 Index - "packing up" a huge smart money in long positions

hello,

 

In today's entry I want to show the behavior of the index E-mini SP500 between 15-17 July.

 

But before I show You very interesting charts together with possible scenarios for the next few days, it is worth recalling what were received the most important information, which influenced the increase in volatility in these days.

 

July 15, 2014

 

Germany – ZEW Index: 27.1; expected: 30.0; previous: 29.8

 

The July decline was 7 the next, and recently such a situation took place in November 2011. But then it was known that behind this euro crisis, now the obvious cause is not. Not only that, the ZEW in all these seven months, not only declined, but each time was below expectations! So economists are predicting this indicator all the time hoped that the deterioration is temporary.

 

USA – retail sales in June: +0,2% m/m; consensus: +0,6% m/m; previous: +0,3%  m/m; Revision of the previous reading to +0,5% m/m

 

Yellen – summary of final statement

 

Yellen in your text writes about many obvious issues like that GDP fell in the first quarter of the reasons the weather. Directly mentioned that the unemployment rate is 6.1%, and PCE inflation measure of 1.8%, but there is no mention that these better than expected after the data have any impact on the assessment of the situation by the Fed. Not only that, Yellen quickly adds that the situation on the labor market must continue to improve and indicates a low-growing wages, and emphasizes that the majority of the members of the Fed expects inflation to remain below 2%. Disputes also focus on the weakness of the real estate market.

Also the same occurrence, in the context of data from the U.S., had a mild accent. If the Fed ignores the rapid improvement in the labor market and higher inflation.

The effect of the head of the Fed: Discount on Wall Street, especially Internet companies;

 

July 16, 2014

 

USA – Industrial production (June) m/m: 0,2%; expected 0,4%; previous 0,6%

 

The head of the Fed announced that at the end of the year, the central bank will communicate how to reduce the balance sheet, which as a result of programs QE1, 2 and 3 has grown to total over $ 4 bln. Yellen said that discussions on this issue are advanced and the Fed will share the conclusions, when they will be completed.

 

"Some asset prices may be on the high side"

 

July 17, 2014

 

USA - new sanctions imposed on Russia in connection with the conflict of war with Ukraine:

 

1) lack of access, to the issue of market shares and debt over 90 days (Rosneft has $ 13.7 billion of maturing debt this year);

 

2) restrictions for companies such as Rosneft, Novatek, Gazprombank, 8 companies from the defense sector.

 

The ECB will reveal the results of AQR at the end of October. Together with the results of the assessment of asset quality in banks will be the results of stress tests for individual banks in the euro zone.

 

USA – permit for the construction of houses: 963 thousand; expected 1040 thousand

Housing starts: 893 thousand; expected 1018 thousand.

 

The strong increase in volatility in the markets after the information about the shooting down civilian passenger aircraft flight MH17 on the territory of Ukraine by Russian terrorists.

 

Conclusions:

As you can see the information that appeared on the market there were a lot and are only listed by me first. It was this information rather negatively perceived by investors. As it turned out bad information was a good opportunity for huge smart money "to pack" in Futures E-mini SP500.

 

bad and good informations = good informations because smart money rules

 

chart 1. E-mini fSP500 Index, H1; 2014-07-25

 

On the chart above clearly shows increased turnover, where the market under the influence of bad news coming out of the market or take short positions. On the other hand, the financial institution that uses the fear of the market and buys the whole market. in the next phase when the market is already bought by using definitely less money can lead Index, to new highs what now realized.

 

chart 2. fSP500 Index, Daily; 2014-07-25

 

On the chart number 2 I presented two scenarios that assume continued upward trend with an attack on 2000 points in the coming weeks.

 

I think that on the chart presented very clearly so I will not elaborate a lot. In case of the scenario number 1 or 2 will decide the next few days. In the case of overcoming levels of 1982 points we should observe the continuing trend growth and output of more than 2000 points. If the market shows weakness it is possible to going down around in 1918 points.

 

 

regards,

oscarjp

 

 

The information contained in this publication is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Any opinion offered herein reflects oscarjp-chrimatistikos current judgment and may change without notice. Users acknowledge and agree to the fact that, by its very nature, any investment in shares, stock options and similar and assimilated products is characterised by a certain degree of uncertainty and that, consequently, any investment of this nature involves risks for which the user is solely responsible and liable.

Does anyone else controls the carousel of debt?

hello,

 

At the beginning I have a question for you. What is the Bank for International Settlements? It is very important question that hardly anyone devotes attention to what the Bank says.

 

And should be. Why?

 

As the Bank for International Settlements [FIS] is the most important financial institution in the world. This is called. central bank for central banks.

 

Surprised? Sure there are now questions why no one cites, does not pay any attention to him?

 

Maybe because it tells how it really is and not pulling the wool over eyes with unnecessary words. As we know, the national central banks like the FED, BOJ or ECB are independent from governments, but each of them is a member of the BIS and implements the policies outlined in Basel.

 

At the meetings held every two months governors of the central banks discuss about the future of the banking system in a coordinated manner to lead a global financial policy. Recently published BIS 84th Annual Report, which shows the current global economy situation in the world.

 

I have not found anyone who would referred to this report. That's why I'll do it myself. Very important messages contained in this document is so much that it is impossible to quote in my post all the information. So I will try to write the most important issues.

 

For those interested, link to full report <84th Annual Raport>

 

1. Economy around the world over the last few years have been artificially sustained add prints currencies. The only effect of pumping money into the economy is the growth of debt and the creation of huge speculative bubbles.

 

Source: BIS

 

2. Government bond market was supported by purchases made by central banks. Within seven years the number of bonds in the hands of central banks rose from 8 billion in 2007 to 21 billion today. Increase by 161%.

 

Source: BIS

 

3. In the next few years, the percentage of tax revenue allocated to the repayment of government debt will rise from 20% today to around 25%.

 

4. Although the last few years, economic growth was much lower than expected accumulated around him speculative bubbles, which should be immediately pierced. By understanding the market bubble of debt (bonds) and instruments based on it and the entire stock market.

 

Source: BIS

 

Source: BIS

 

5. Indicators point to the risk of financial distress.

 

Source: BIS

Credit-to-GDP gaps in many EMEs and Switzerland are well above the threshold that indicates potential trouble. The historical record shows that credit-to-GDP gaps (the difference between the credit-to-GDP ratio and its long-term trend) above 10 percentage points have usually been followed by serious banking strains within three years.5 Residential property price gaps (the deviation of real residential property prices from their long-term trend) also point to risks: they tend to build up during a credit boom and fall two to three years before a crisis.

 

The most important thing is the message of the entire report. Better break out speculative bubbles leading to a controlled collapse than to wait until the scale of the distortion will increase, leading to a collapse of the system on which it is easy to lose control.

 

The whole situation is most ironic is that the BIS is concerned about speculative bubbles, which led to his policy, on the occasion of contributing to a significant enrichment, already the richest 1% of the population.

 

You can notice a slight conflict of opinion between the BIS and Mario Draghi. Let me remind you in my last entry: "In addition, the recent statement by Draghi about the situation on the financial markets as many times emphasized that it should not be a topic of discussion for representatives of civil servants (but I understand that everyone has invested some of his own funds). Draghi sees no bubble in the markets and says it will not raise rates if any will appear somewhere. In his opinion, are better macro-prudential instruments. Forging bubbles by raising interest rates is the last resort."

 

 

best regards,

oscarjp

EUR/USD SHORT

Hi,

Today publish My recommendation to continue the strategy from previous entries.

<EUR/USD link 1>

<EUR/USD link 2>

In accordance with those described in previous entries the initial assumption was long position and hold it until the market does not break 1.3575. In the day when there was a breakthrough on the chart indicated a significant level of support, I took a short position. Because I expect now that the price will return to main trend initiated on May 8 this year, I will focus only on the buying of the dollar and the relative lowering of stop loss.

Stop loss order has been set in the initial phase at the level of 1.3585 and thus above this level. During the passage of time when the market went down deeper then I was decided to lower the stop loss to 1.3550 level that guarantees me a small profit.

I expect in the next few days strengthening of the dollar against the euro and the potential prime targets to achieve a level of 1.3475

chart 1. EUR/USD H4, 2014-07-17

In addition, the recent statement by Draghi about the situation on the financial markets as many times emphasized that it should not be a topic of discussion for representatives of civil servants (but I understand that everyone has invested some of his own funds). Draghi sees no bubble in the markets and says it will not raise rates if any will appear somewhere. In his opinion, are better macro-prudential instruments. "Forging bubbles by raising interest rates is the last resort." 

 

trade safe,
best regards,
oscarjp

 

 

The information contained in this publication is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Any opinion offered herein reflects oscarjp-chrimatistikos current judgment and may change without notice. Users acknowledge and agree to the fact that, by its very nature, any investment in shares, stock options and similar and assimilated products is characterised by a certain degree of uncertainty and that, consequently, any investment of this nature involves risks for which the user is solely responsible and liable.

European Household Loans Plunge By Most On Record

hello,

 

According the most recent data out of Europe is that lending to non-financial corporations declined once again in January, this time by €11.7billion, adjusted for securitizations and sales. On an annual basis, the decline in January was -2.0%, the same as December, and worse than the -1.8% in November as reported by the ECB.

 

The biggest problem Europe faces is not inflation (or rather deflation) but loan creation: nearly 6 years after the Lehman collapse, the monetary transmission mechanism i.e., loan-funded growth in Europe continues to be abysmal, mostly due to lack of credit demand, which in turn means that any attempt by Draghi to unclog Europe's monetary pipeline via NIRP, QE, or what have you, is set to fail. It also explains why the latest TLTRO expansion by the ECB (if it ever actually takes place of course: recall Europe's OMT program still does not officially exist) has and will achieve nothing for the real economy but certainly has boosted carry trades into overdrive leading to record lows for all peripheral bond yields. Creating a speculative bubble in shares and bonds.

chart 1. Euro Area Private Sector Loan Creation and M3

Alas, dated 30th of June ECB update on Monetary Developments in the Euro Area was as grim as always, with the all important series of Loans to the private sector sliding once again by 2.0% Y/Y, worse even than April's -1.8% contraction, driven by a €43 billion collapse in loans to households. This happened even as the now largely meaningless M3 rose by 1.0%, an increase to April's 0.7% Y/Y change.

 

As Goldman explains, "Euro area bank lending to non-financial corporations (NFCs) fell by €7.6bn in May, after a €6.3bn contraction in April. Lending rose in France and declined in Spain and Italy, while it was roughly unchanged in Germany. There was a significant decline in lending to households for house purchase related to sales and securitisation. Broad money growth rose from +0.7%yoy to +1.0%yoy, stronger than expected (Cons; +0.8%yoy)."

chart 2. The flow of new loans to corporates

 

Lending to non-financial corporations, on a seasonally adjusted basis, declined by €7.6bn in May, after a €6.3bn fall in April. The decline was smaller (at €4.5bn) when adjusted for securitisations and sales and broadly similar to the April figure.

Loans to households fell by €42.8bn (its largest decline on record), having risen by €5.1bn in April. This was mainly related to lending for house purchases (which do not count towards banks' allotment in the TLTRO) and reflects sales and securitisation (when adjusted for this, lending to households rose €3bn, similar to the April figure).

chart 3. Loans in selected conutries in EU

 

Complete collapse in household loan formation in Europe's second "best" economy clearly spells out some nasty four letter words - but the ECB disaster is just waiting to unfold. It also means that as the ECB scrambles to figure out next steps, it will stop at nothing to prove that the BIS concerns about central banker idiocy were full deserved, and we expect Frankfurt to launch QE in the coming months even though European private sector clearly has no excess collateral which the ECB can monetize, considering the vast majority of debt parked at various European banks is already collateralized at the ECB as is.

regards,
oscarjp

28. Summary of the trades (July 1st, 2014 - July 15th, 2014)

hello,

 

Time to summarize all the transactions of the past two weeks. From the beginning of July on the blog appeared three recommendations.

 

The first concerned the opening a long position regaridng EUR/USD at 1.3575 level and in the event of a puncture this level to open short position and of course close long.

 

<link to the trade>

 

Another suggestion however, concerned the USD/CAD, which encouraged to take a long position at current levels then that is 1.0664

 

<link to the trade>

 

In the case of the EUR/USD market in the initial phase directed towards the indicated level but unfortunately several comments from the ECB, and the Draghi's Conference resulted in withdrawal from the euro and the strong U.S. dollar acquisition.

 

On July 16, the market broke through the levels indicated in the recommendations which resulted in the opening of a short position on EUR/USD at 1.3567 levels

 

At the moment I expect in the next few days go below 1.35-1.34. But more detail about that in the nearest entry regarding EUR/USD.

 

Canadian dollar market perfectly realized my analysis. Today appeared by the Bank of Canada report about monetary policy.

 

Here are the most important issues:

- Bank of Canada keeps interest rates;

- The Bank will remain neutral even with rising inflation;

- It is expected that economic growth this year will reach 2.2% (previously forecast 2.3% growth);

- Increased global reach 2.9% (previous forecast 3.2%);

- For the past two years, inflation should hover around 2%.

 

Conference President of the Bank of Canada does not bring much to the message of the Bank. Poloz was doves but said nothing significantly new.

 





Summary of trades



regards,

oscarjp

article from the Financial Times

hello,

 

Today in Finanacial Times we can read a very interesting article. About which I wrote some time ago on my blog.

 

"The percentage of stocks that have been borrowed by short sellers – who try to profit from a company’s share price falling – has dropped to the lowest level in the US, UK and the rest of Europe since the years before the collapse of Lehman Brothers, according to data compiled for the Financial Times by Markit."

"The fall in short selling comes as Wall Street and markets in Europe trade at near record and multiyear highs, indicating that while some high profile hedge fund managers have warned of excessive market euphoria the industry is still unwilling to bet against the rally."

"The amount of so-called short interest in the benchmark US S&P 500 index is hovering around 2 per cent of total shares in the index, close to the lowest level since Markit began collecting the data in 2006. In the European Stoxx 600 index, the level is similar at just over 2 per cent, while short interest in the UK FTSE All-Share index stands at less than 1 per cent."

"This compares with sharply elevated levels in the years preceding the credit crisis, with the data showing short interest in the US in 2007 hitting a high of 5.5 per cent. The Markit data does not take into account all changes in stock indices over the period."

"Buoyed in part by injections of cheap money from central banks, including the Federal Reserve’s asset-purchase programme, leading stock markets have continued to rise this year after enjoying strong gains in 2013, forcing some hedge funds to cut their short bets to avoid being squeezed."

You can see more <here>.

Personally, I will not refer to this information. Certainly, this is another indication in favor of a correction in the near future. But during the last 2 - 3 months similar indicators on the internet appeared are hundreds. Therefore, assessment of leave to each of you individually.


best regards,
oscarjp

My recommendation for USD/CAD activated

hello,

 

Latest readings of macroeconomic data showing in what condition is the Canadian economy shows that Canadians already have the worst behind them.

 

Wholesale trade, April 2014

Wholesale sales rose 1.2% to $51.2 billion in April following a decline in March. Higher sales were recorded in all subsectors except for food, beverage and tobacco. The subsectors that rose in April accounted for 80% of wholesale sales. In volume terms, wholesale sales were up 1.2%.

 

The largest gain in April was in the building material and supplies subsector (+3.6%), which rose for a fourth consecutive month to reach $7.4 billion. All of the subsector's industries recorded higher sales, with the lumber, millwork, hardware and other building supplies industry (+4.4%) contributing the most to the gain. This was the fifth consecutive increase for this industry. Exports of forestry products and building and packaging materials rose significantly in April.

 

Monthly Survey of Manufacturing, April 2014

Manufacturing sales edged down 0.1% in April to $50.9 billion, the first decrease in four months. Declines in the petroleum and coal product, aerospace product and parts, and machinery industries were largely offset by smaller gains in most other industries. In April, 14 of 21 industries representing about 60% of manufacturing posted gains, despite the slight decrease in total sales. Constant dollar sales rose 0.4% in April, indicating an increase in the volume of goods sold.

 

May 2014 Housing Starts in Canada

Housing starts in Canada were trending at 184,438 units in May compared to 183,872 in April, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. The trend is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates of housing starts.

 

Labour Force Survey, May 2014

Employment edged up by 26,000 in May, driven by gains in part-time work. The unemployment rate increased 0.1 percentage points to 7.0% as there were more people in the labour market. Overall employment growth has been subdued since August 2013. In the 12 months to May, employment increased by 86,000 or 0.5%, with all the growth in part time. Over the same period, the number of hours worked was little changed.

 

Consumer Price Index, May 2014

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.3% in the 12 months to May, following a 2.0% increase in April. Excluding energy, the CPI advanced 1.7% year over year in May, after rising 1.4% the previous month. <more info>.

 

chart 1. Technical analysis of USD/CAD, Weekly, 2014-07-07

 

At the moment we are in a very important spot on the chart. Determined move in the next few days whichever direction should shape the sentiment on the currency pair in the coming weeks. I mean the levels marked on the chart by the red rectangle (bottom) and the trend line.

 

In my view, however, these levels should be in the next few days to stop the strengthening of the Canadian dollar and return to the main trend, which is the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. In the event when the price overcome an indicated levels, next suport level is 1.0446. Overcoming this resistance also opens the way to the levels from 2011.

 

Canadian dollar is sensitive to changes in the interest rate differential, which should grow in the United States. therefore My recommendation for USDCAD is target level 1.1600 - 1.1650 in this year.

 

best regards,

oscarjp

 

 

The information contained in this publication is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Any opinion offered herein reflects oscarjp-chrimatistikos current judgment and may change without notice. Users acknowledge and agree to the fact that, by its very nature, any investment in shares, stock options and similar and assimilated products is characterised by a certain degree of uncertainty and that, consequently, any investment of this nature involves risks for which the user is solely responsible and liable.

continuation of the EUR/USD analysis

Hello,

 

 

From the memorable ECB conference dated June 5, about which I wrote a quite interesting summary <here> passed a lot of time, exactly one month. Since then, all interest rates regarding the transactions settlement in euro dropped significantly. About the effect of the interest rate market also I wrote one entry. More information along with fundamental analysis EUR/USD <this time - here>.

 

Since that time easy to see that all economic factors indicate a strong appreciation of the U.S. dollar against most currencies. And most of all against the euro.

 

Even investment banks this time are very consistent and indicate a strengthening of the dollar in the coming weeks. More reviews below.

 

In the last recommendation <more information - here> I encouraged to take positions long in the EUR/USD pair which allowed to earn less than 80 pips. Then, in the statement of transactions, number 27 I informed that after reaching the levels should be expected in the coming days back at around the level of 1.3575. And at that moment is approaching this level.

 

To facilitate the understanding of the current situation in the first place I will put the chart.

 

chart 1. technical analysis of EUR/USD, H1, 2014-07-06 

 

The current reflection on the currency pair rather due to technical factors rather than fundamentals. On the chart shows the important level, which should decide on sentiment in the coming week. Therefore, when the quotation is coming to the indicated level should watch the market and at the right time to take a long position. In the case of a strong break of that level should then take into account the possibility of the end of correction and expect new lows in the coming days. It is worth noting that the current yield of the German 2Y is only at the level of 0.16%. The last time these papers were of such low interest rates in May 2013.

 

 

Opinions of the investent banks:

 

Commerzbank

"The market is seeing some fairly choppy trading but remains essentially corrective near term. The Elliott wave count on the daily chart is suggesting a rebound to 1.3770 prior to the next swing lower. Intraday charts are neutral and rallies will find initial resistance at 1.3644, 1.3677/90 (early June high and Fibo)," CB projects.

 

"Our longer term view remains bearish while we are below 1.40, the Elliott wave count on the daily chart is suggesting that rebounds should not exceed the 1.3775 zone," CB adds.

 

UBS

EUR/USD: NEUTRAL. The latest decline brings our focus on support at 1.3584, a breach of which will be negative, triggering a move lower to 1.3477. Resistance is at 1.3700 ahead of 1.3806.

 

Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley reiterates its bearish EUR view and expresses that via holding 2 short EUR/USD positions as a short-term and medium-term recommendations.

 

Falling peripheral yields:

"Peripheral bond yields have come down and with the €400 billion TLTRO standing ready to boost commercial bank balance sheets, peripheral bond yields are likely to fall further. However, falling peripheral yields should reduce the attractiveness of this asset class for non-bank investors. Investors will likely look for alternatives and, with cross-currency yield differentials widening in favor of non-EUR currencies, EUR should come under selling pressure," MS argues.

 

Voliatily is a key:

"The level of volatility will decide if EUR is falling slowly or at a brisk pace. Should volatility stay low, carry will remain the dominant theme, suggesting EUR crosses trading moderately lower. Nonetheless, as soon as volatility picks up, EURUSD should trade sharply lower," MS adds.

 

 

regards,

oscarjp

 

 

The information contained in this publication is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Any opinion offered herein reflects oscarjp-chrimatistikos current judgment and may change without notice. Users acknowledge and agree to the fact that, by its very nature, any investment in shares, stock options and similar and assimilated products is characterised by a certain degree of uncertainty and that, consequently, any investment of this nature involves risks for which the user is solely responsible and liable.

27. Summary of the trades (June 15th, 2014 - June30th, 2014)

Hello,

 

Today, the stock markets closed, unfortunately, all my transactions have posted on my blog. Remind you that on June 24 I showed on my charts possibility of starting the correction in global equity markets. Then I recommended short positions in the Dow Jones Index, and fDAX Index and fSP500 Index.

 

link to my recommendations

 

Initially, markets pursue my assumptions which allowed me to lower my order "stop loss". And consequently realize a small profit. Of course I'm not happy with the behavior of today's session in the United States and consequently futures in Europe.

 

Regarding the possibilities of realizing a correction shown by me in my previous entries about the SP500 Index was today completely destroyed. Consequently, at the moment according to my investment policy I will try to make a new technical analysis of the Index. Look at everything from the beginning.

 

 

EUR/USD trade

 

Regarding recommendations on EUR / USD I'm very happy because they realized the whole price range which I showed in my post.

 

EUR/USD recommendation

 

The transaction resulted in quite large profit of 73 pips. At the present moment, further increases in the currency pair are questionable. Tomorrow, I will try make a short position but the new analysis appears until at a later date.

 

fWIG20 Index

 

At the end I wanted to remind you of the presented scenarios for fWIG20 Index almost a month ago. Taking into account strong growth in the equity markets, realizing the negative scenario is under a big question mark. For those who have short positions I recommend to start closing their positions.

 

two scenario for fWIG20 Index

 

Summary of trades

 

Thank you for your attention, I salute

oscarjp

 

 

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