hello,
Continuing the entries about Polish stock exchange and the economy, today I would like to encourage you to analyze the Current Issues of economic activity.
In the current analysis, I propose to focus on economic indicators because it had recently published the latest readings and the readings were very consistent in terms of direction of change. This direction is now downward. Due to the historical relations can be considered that this phenomenon is at least in part explains the analogous signs of weakness on the WSE.
Following is a brief list of the most subjective of me Current Issues of indicators describing the situation in the Polish economy.
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| chart 1. Industrial Production Y/Y; 2014-07-30 |
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| chart 2. Industrial Production M/M; 2014-07-30 |
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| chart 3. Retail Sales Y/Y; 2014-07-30 |
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| chart 4. Retail Sales M/M; 2014-07-30 |
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| chart 5. Manufacturing PMI; 2014-07-30 |
PMI disappointed again. PMI is an indicator regarding the situation in the industry and is not hard data, however, the signals sent by the related to whole economy. It is not only that the reading fell below the expectations of economists, but most of all is that bad luck was confirmed. Index was at the lowest of 11 months. Previously, this kind of signals we have seen in the years 2000, 2004, 2007 and 2011. In three of these four cases, investors watched for some time been developing a negative scenario for the stock market, but that would not be over.
In addition, the sanctions imposed against Russia by the United States and the European Union within the conflict of war with Ukraine could plunge Russia and push in the financial crisis. In addition, Russia may start to defend by imposing an embargo on various imported products. Russia imposed an embargo on Polish fruits and vegetables.
regards,
oscarjp
regards,
oscarjp
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