my technical analysis of fSP500

hello Traders,

Below a brief info about the most important events of the past week and the technical analysis of the futures SP500 index.

Non-Farm Employment Change disappointed the second month. However, the unemployment rate is only 7.3%. Not long ago, members of the Fed signaled that the 7% QE should be completely FINISHED. Addition, there has been a revision for July from 162 thousand. to 104 thousand.! Also negative for the dollar. Recall that the Fed has promised that when the unemployment rate reaches 6.5% then  will consider interest rate hike (paying attention also on inflation and other variables). Meanwhile, members of the FOMC said recently (tentatively) that 6.5% can be achieved only in mid-2015! 

First Reaction: 'US Jobs Report Soft, But The March To Septaper continues' - Barclays; "The August employment report was softer than expected, but, in our estimation, is sufficient to keep the Fed on track for a tapering in the pace of its purchases at the September meeting. Our baseline outlook is that the Fed will taper the pace of purchases to $70bn ($35bn Treasuries and $35bn in agency mortgage-backed securities) at its September meeting, and based on our forecast that the unemployment rate will reach 7.0% in Q1 14, we expect the Fed to conclude its purchases in March of next year."

Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Esther George said the Fed should begin to pullback on asset buying beginning in September, and suggested an "appropriate next step" would be tapering purchases to $70 billion a month. Fed George Suggests Tapering To $70Bln In Sep Vs $85Bln.

After the data from the U.S. by recent reports Bloomberg consensus fell from $ 15 billion to $ 10 billion.

Managing the largest bond fund in the world Bill Gross from Pimco, in comments said it expected shear QE3 in September by $ 10 billion. The market consensus is around $ 15 billion.

Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans, while sounding decidedly bullish on the outlook for the U.S. economy, said Friday the Fed should only begin dialing back its aggressive asset purchases once it is sure growth "gained traction" in the third quarter and that the factors keeping inflation low are indeed transitory. And although he still believes the central bank will begin tapering its $85 billion a month in asset purchases later this year, Evans went to great lengths to stress that monetary policy will remain highly accommodative "for some time," with the possibility the Fed will not hike interest rates even after unemployment falls below its 6.5% threshold.

So, easy to conclude that the markets already discounted information about reducing the QE of 10 - 15 billion per month. Discounted information has already been a desire to start a private war by Mr Obama and Israel.

It seems that the start of the occurrence of Bernanke nothing should happen and correction of the SP500 has been successfully completed. At present, banks are expected to be strong element and they should pull among other world index up.

Currently on the chart, we should see the end of the correction at the level of 1620 points. Significant resistance is located at 1664 points. Overcoming this resistance will open the door to new heights this year. Now I do not see any threats to the declines on the stock markets of developed economies. The question is how the economy of emergin markets will reduce of QE. It appears that the process of outflow of capital has already begun. This is particularly the weakening of local currencies and higher yields of individual countries.

Chart 1, SP500, H4, 2013-09-08

best regards,
oscarjp



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