Is the Fed was indeed the "dovish"?

hello,

In yesterday's entry, entitled: "Dovish FOMC Minutes". <link> I presented the expectations of investment banks before the FOMC Minutes and the opinion of Mr. Mattias Bruer, who said that the FOMC report is dovish. Anyway, the all market as stated that, what was shown on the strong growth on, for example: SP500 Index.

But is that really the message was encouraging to buy stocks?

After a thorough analysis of the entire report can infer really interesting conclusions. I think the main reason why the share price began to rise, it was notice by the Investors that several members of the Fed pointed out that expectations about the pace of interest rate increases are exaggerated. And it made ​​the market less valued the opportunity to raise interest rates in June 2015 and moved those expectations clearly a few months later. In the medium term it is worth noting that the Fed rhetoric still remain more "hawkish"

To tell the truth Minutes did not bring anything new - commented that the weaker data in the winter, the effect of weather, that the improvement in the labor market is systematic. Do not include references indicating the date of the first interest rate increase, but it was difficult to expect them to. Therefore, the document should be neutral for the market, but has been used as an excuse to sell the dollar and increases in the stock market.

In addition, today met weekly data from the labor market in the United States. The number of new unemployment records in the first week of April amounted to 300 thousand. and was lower than the best forecast in a Bloomberg survey, and the lowest since May 2007! As a result, 4-week average of 316 thousand. and is the lowest since September, when at one point was 315 thousand. The data are very strong and suggest that in the coming months, employment growth should exceed 200 thousand. strengthening the hawks position at the Committee of the Fed.

In addition, we had today occurrence representatives of the ECB

Praet:

- Recent data confirm that the euro area comes to life,

- However, the recovery is uneven across the euro area,

- The euro area economy to reach potential growth up to 2017,

- Debate on the unconventional activities is ongoing,

- The ECB may implement many measures to prevent lower inflation.

Constancio:

- decrease in inflation by 0.5 percentage points is the result of a high rate of EUR, 

- In Europe, the lack of demand.

In summary

I maintain a long position on the gold market <chart 1>, which I wrote about in an earlier entry.  still open

I still recommends a long position on EUR/USD for the publication of the inflation data. 

I strongly recommends that a short position on the SP500 Index and European Indexes. <more info>

Today, I made a short position on my home market index fWIG20 <chart 2> still open

chart 1. GOLD H1, 2014-04-10

chart 2. fWIG20 Index, 2014-04-10

trade safe,
best regards,
oscarjp

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