hello,
Today we met about the trade balance figures for November, which proved to be better than expected.
The deficit was 34.3 billion USD, much less than the consensus (40.2 billion USD). <more info> But what is important, lower deficit was achieved with an increase in exports. Conclusions are two, and both positive for the dollar:
1. exports increased in the period October-November by 3%, while at the same time, imports fell by 1.3%. That means a major contribution of net exports to economic growth in the fourth quarter,
2. annual growth rate of exports for the second month in a row remained above 5%. The last time such a situation occurred in March 2012. For comparison, the annual growth of German exports is less than 1% (data for October).
A visual summary from Bloomberg:
 |
| chart 1. US Trade Monitor, 2014-01-07 |
Trade with some key trading partners:
1. The goods deficit with China decreased from $28.9 billion in October to $26.9 billion in November. Exports increased $0.1 billion (primarily soybeans and corn) to $13.2 billion, while imports decreased $1.8 billion (primarily toys, games, and sporting goods and apparel) to $40.1 billion.
2. The goods deficit with the European Union decreased from $14.3 billion in October to $10.1 billion in November. Exports decreased $0.2 billion (primarily artwork, antiques, stamps, etc. and organic chemicals) to $22.9 billion, while imports decreased $4.4 billion (primarily pharmaceutical preparations) to $33.0 billion.
3. The goods deficit with Canada decreased from $2.8 billion in October to $1.5 billion in November. Exports decreased $1.3 billion (primarily petroleum products and automobiles) to $25.7 billion, while imports decreased $2.7 billion (primarily crude oil) to $27.1 billion.
Breaking down the goods trade by category:
1. The October to November increase in exports of goods reflected increases in industrial supplies and materials ($0.7 billion); other goods ($0.5 billion); capital goods ($0.3 billion); and automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.1 billion). Decreases occurred in consumer goods ($0.5 billion) and foods, feeds, and beverages ($0.1 billion).
2. The October to November decrease in imports of goods reflected decreases in industrial supplies and materials ($4.3 billion); other goods ($0.8 billion); foods, feeds, and beverages ($0.3 billion); and consumer goods ($0.1 billion). Increases occurred in automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($1.1 billion) and capital goods ($0.9 billion).
3. The November 2012 to November 2013 increase in exports of goods reflected increases in industrial supplies and materials ($3.1 billion); capital goods ($1.2 billion); foods, feeds, and beverages ($1.1 billion); automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.8 billion); other goods ($0.6 billion); and consumer goods ($0.5 billion).
4. The November 2012 to November 2013 decrease in imports of goods reflected decreases in industrial supplies and materials ($6.9 billion); other goods ($0.3 billion); and consumer goods ($0.3 billion). Increases occurred in capital goods ($2.2 billion); automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($1.6 billion); and foods, feeds, and beverages ($0.2 billion)
Tomorrow is going to happen :)
Tomorrow we have two important events: the publication of the report ADP (prelude to government data, which will be announced on Friday) and minutes of the FOMC meeting - is one of the three key events of the week.
In addition, we will get data about industrial orders in Germany, and now the morning data about the trade balance of Germany and France, which will show how effectively the eurozone recovery scenario materializes.
Thursday is the central banks: BoE and ECB. Regarding ECB: Inflation in EMU is alarmingly low, although the data show a slight improvement in the economic situation plus we have obviously conference Draghi.
Friday is the culmination: the monthly report from the labor market. In short, the data is likely to decide whether, in January FOMC will reduce QE by a further 10 billion USD.
best regards,
oscarjp
No comments:
Post a Comment