hello,
EUR/USD
With reference to my recommendation from 27th October <link> and continuing my recommendation from 30th October <link> I think they have not time to close the trades, I still have a short positions. As an update, I decided to refresh my technical analysis - chart 1.
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| chart 1. EUR/USD M30, 2013-11-12 |
At present, we observe a fairly extensive correction with the 3470-3480 target level. I assume it will be a classic correction of A-B-C. At least for the moment, as indicated waves.
The main factors that have a positive effect on my analysis are:
1. Troika visitors in Greece, still can not come to agreement on the budget for next year. According to Troika budget hole next year will be nearly 3 billion euros, and government officials talk about 500 mln. At stake is the payment of the next tranche of aid of € 1 billion. The situation in Greece is already quite taut and the two parties can not reach a compromise. It is no wonder Greek politicians as the economy of the country and is already in ruins and the public mood is bad. Hence the lack of willingness to further cuts. Greece still has to achieve primary budget surplus, and right now the main problem is the interest regarding a gigantic debt.
2. Despite the very good data from the U.S. on Friday, markets do not hurry when making conclusion. Conclusion relating QE, it seems there is a chance for considerable volatility in recent months of the year. S&P500 or DAX30 all the time looking for highs. All that is needed for such a move is another similar report from the U.S. labor market - this time for November (it will be announced before the December meeting of the Fed). However, at the moment the market does not take into account the cutting QE in December. And that means potentially big changes, of course, down for the stock markets and gold, and further strengthening of the dollar.
3. The situation in Europe also needs a loose monetary policy, including to quite a weird combination of dangerously low inflation, record high unemployment, a strong euro and weak foreign trade statistics. Two months ago, Mario Draghi said in fact that the market valued interest rate increases while the ECB is to ensure that monetary policy will remain unchanged or will be even looser. Markets ignored his words, so the President of the ECB decided to punish them (in practice, the reduction of the reference rate from 0.5% to 0.25% is almost irrelevant - the biggest banks still lend much cheaper). To market a very clear message - the end the bullish euro.
4. And the last most important point. This Thursday Janet Yellen awaits the first major test as the new head of the Fed. Then start the hearing before the Senate Banking Committee. Yellen will have to answer both questions about the Fed's current policies and trends suggest that the Fed will adopt under her controls. This will be the most important speech Yellen in career as the central banker. The eyes of the world will be facing in the direction of the U.S. Senate, and every word Yellen may affect the market. The market will be waiting for the most questions about QE3, and Janet Yellen has long presented an ultra-dovish views. That Yellen was sworn she needs a few votes from the Republican camp. Democrats certainly will support it, the more that before a large group of people from the party blocked the nomination of Larry Summers. The final swearing Yellen should be a formality.
USD/PLN
Specifically at the request of one of my readers, I put the technical analysis of the USD/PLN - chart 2
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| chart 2. USD/PLN W1, 2013-11-12 |
Currently, I believe that we are in the implementation of the last fifth wave strengthening of the Polish zloty. I set a stop loss close to recent highs at 3.1550 level - chart 3.
In the near future we should not test the 3.11 - 3.10 level which will allow us to lower the stop loss and continue to quietly observe the behavior of the market.
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| chart 3. USD/PLN Trade H4, 2013-11-12 |
If there are any new questions or would like to know more details about the last recommendations and technical analysis. Please don't be shy and feel free to write. Sure I'll answer all your questions.
trade safe,
oscarjp
The information contained in this publication is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Any opinion offered herein reflects oscarjp-chrimatistikos current judgment and may change without notice. Users acknowledge and agree to the fact that, by its very nature, any investment in shares, stock options and similar and assimilated products is characterised by a certain degree of uncertainty and that, consequently, any investment of this nature involves risks for which the user is solely responsible and liable.
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