At the beginning I present information coming from the Deutsche Borse Group
Speculative accounts increased their net euro long position as of October 1, according to back-dated U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data, released Friday.
The CFTC's Commitments of Traders report - non-commercial, futures-only section, excluding options - showed speculators had a net euro long position of +68,276 contracts as of Oct. 1, versus the prior week's net long of +65,844 contracts.
The position as per Oct. 1 was the largest net long since May 3, 2011, when speculative players had a net long of +99,516 contracts.
The historical situation presenting using the chart dated May 3, 2011:
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| chart 1. EUR/USD, H4, 2013-10-27 |
Of course, over the coming days does not have to be similarly. It presents only my observations, my opinion will be at the end.
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| chart 2. EUR/USD, H4, 2013-10-27 |
The key event, which drew investors the most attention this week was the publication of outstanding data from the U.S. labor market (the unemployment rate and the change in employment in Non-Farm Employment Sector). The data were published on Tuesday. Read the main component of the publication came out worse than expected - job growth in September amounted to 148 thousand. against expectations of 180 thousand. This information resulted in the sale of the dollar against the Euro. At the moment, the chances of QE3 cut in December are minimal.
If we delve more into the data, it turns out that the unemployment rate fell to 7.2% - the lowest since November 2008. Fed has set itself the target to low of the unemployment rate to 7% by the end of the program QE3, so it is getting closer to reaching yourself target. The market expressly ignored this fact. In addition, the August reading was revised upward, which should also favor the dollar. Therefore, even though the first reaction is justified, it will not be a surprise if the market corrects powerful movements that occurred shortly after the publication of data from the labor market.
The October PMI were generally weaker than expected. Disappointed not only American Index (down by 1.7 points), showing a negative effect of paralysis, but also Indexes from Europe showed results below expectations. Although just an Index for the industry recorded a slight increase (by 0.2 points, It was less than expected), the Index for the services sector declined by 1.3 points.
The IFO Index 107.4 points, expected 108 points, previous 107.7 points.
In the coming week, investors will look forward to the FOMC decision on interest rates in the United States. Here, I do not expect any changes and, more importantly, after this decision is not a press conference. From the USA we will also ADP report, the estimated change in employment in the private sector in October.
According my opinion since Monday I will by short position (buy U.S. dollars). My first pre-shopping I was carrying out on Friday. The next orders I have at 3830 levels. Of course please do not forget about stop loss. Long term target would hit 1.25 - 1.24
trade safe,
best regards,
oscarjp
The information contained in this publication is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Any opinion offered herein reflects oscarjp-chrimatistikos current judgment and may change without notice. Users acknowledge and agree to the fact that, by its very nature, any investment in shares, stock options and similar and assimilated products is characterised by a certain degree of uncertainty and that, consequently, any investment of this nature involves risks for which the user is solely responsible and liable.
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