update my technical analysis of the major Indexes from London, New York and Warsaw

hello again today :)

Minutes FOMC: Tapering is back !!!

- Most FOMC members for the restriction of this year and end in the mid-14th year
- FOMC sees a threat in the rising market rates
- fiscal policy reduces the potential for growth
- Economic growth is weaker than previously expected
- Of course, voted against this protocol Mrs. Esther George, which is the biggest hawk in the FOMC

"In light of the mixed data recently, including inflation readings that remained below the Committee’s longer-run objective, and the concerns over near-term fiscal uncertainties, some members indicated that they preferred to await more evidence that their expectation of continuing improvement would be realized. But with financial markets appearing to expect a reduction in purchases at this meeting, concerns were raised about the effectiveness of FOMC communications if the Committee did not take that step. Several members, the various considerations made the decision to maintain an unchanged pace of asset purchases at this meeting a relatively close call."

Chart 1, fFTSE100, H4, 2013-10-09

Chart 2, fSP500, H1, 2013-10-09

Chart 3, fWIG20, M30, 2013-10-09

Minutes were relatively dovish, but NOT so doves as many investors and economists expected. Naturally document Reporter why the FOMC is not limited in September QE hardly hawkish. In the document there are many signals that the majority of the Committee was disappointed with the data, especially data from the labor market.

But came the clear key answer - cut QE was not reasonably ONLY because in the minds of the majority of questions have been raised after weaker labor market data . This means that

a) there is no change in philosophy in action the Fed and even taking the seat by Yellen could mean the continuation of tightening

b ) as soon as the data improve, the Fed will reduce the QE

Not only that. Minutes show that the decision was very difficult , and many members were firmly undecided, fearing the negative effects of any decision to reduce the credibility of the Fed. This confirms the words of the head of the Dallas Fed, Richard Fisher, who argued that the decision to reduce it was very close. This means that for such a decision to the next meeting will also close.

Fed QE no limit in October by the shutdown. All that it means uncertainty about the economic outlook and simply a lack of labor market data for September. But we think the next few months will reveal better labor market data. And that - after a period of uncertainty as to the attitude of the Fed - again should mean reduction of QE. Playing the dollar again so it can make more sense.

best regards,
oscarjp

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