the most important information delivered today

Hello everyone and invite you to get acquainted with the most important events and information that have taken place today and during last weekend.

The main conclusions after the Evans speech (FED):

- low interest rates will be maintained until we see a clear improvement in the economy;

- inflation below target and unemployment unacceptably high (nothing surprised, little impact on the market);

- We do not see fiscal stabilization;

- Reducing QE3 will extend the time;

- Fed needs to increase monthly employment of 200 thousand.

Existing Home Sales in September: 5,29 mln; consensus: 5,31 mln

Data on retail sales in September in the U.S. will be released October 29

Mario Monti leaves the Italian government.

Bloomberg conducted a survey regarding the Fed's monetary policy. The current consensus estimate is:

◦ cut QE3 in March;
◦ cut of 15mld USD (from the current 85);
◦ shutdown will reduce GDP growth in Q4 by 0.3 percentage;
◦ the end of the QE3 - October 2014.

RBS strategy for Payroll (22nd October):

◦ reading above 200 thousand. and the upward revision of readings for July and August will return the discussion of QE3 cut in December (read - a strong appreciation of the dollar);
◦ 170-180k - gently dollar will strengthen against the EUR, AUD and NZD;
◦ 130-160k - will not be cut by the end of the year, buy EURUSD and NZDUSD;
◦ 100-125 - significant strengthening AUDUSD;
◦ 90k and below - mighty dollar sale.

regards,
oscarjp