hello,
Today, the only interesting events in my opinion were speeches by Fed regarding Current Issues of the economic situation in the United States, and monetary policy. In addition, it is worth noting that these are the last planned statements by the Fed until the meeting of the FED and the statement of the Ben Bernanke on 17-18 December.
Lacker, FED of Richmond:
- GDP growth next year, only slightly more than 2%;
- immediate improvement in the labor market rather unlikely;
- I expect a discussion about reducing the QE next week;
- inflation back to 2% over the next year or two;
- is unrealistic to change by FED pace of the purchases from time to time, it is difficult to define the criteria for cutting QE3.
Fischer, FED of Dallas:
- business should take advantage of low interest rates now;
- QE3 cost significantly exceeds its advantages;
- Fed should cut at the earliest opportunity (17-18 of December :));
- I am opposed to moving the threshold of raising interest rates.
Bullard, FED of St. Louis:
- Fed must be credible with the objective of inflation;
- markets should be able to "digest" the cut QE3 in the near future;
- the stock market is not far from the traditional foundations I do not see bubbles in financial markets;
- inflation, a negative surprise;
- growth of the labor market may slow down;
- cut should be small with such a low inflation.
Key sentence:
"A small taper might recognize labor market improvement while still providing the Committee the opportunity to carefully monitor inflation during the first half of 2014."
still something:
In December a Bloomberg survey, economists involved cutting waiting QE3 in December rose with 17% in November to 34% in December. 26% of respondents expected the first cut in January. 40% of respondents still expected to cut until March 2014, no one expected to start cutting QE3 later than March. The survey has covered 35 economists and analysts.
regards,
oscarjp
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