Sunday 8 December 2013

why the EUR/USD does not want to fall?

hello,

On Wednesday, yield of German 10Y Gov. Bond shot up to 1,814% from 1,733%, while the highest level since Oct. 22. On Friday, we had a maximum of 1.89. Before closing exchanges yield managed to fall and ended the week at 1.84

Also strongly increased the yield of German 2Y to 0.167% found at the highest level since Oct. 29. In the afternoon yield for the same securities was already 0.218%

German bonds were once a safe haven for capital at a time when in Europe has not happened preferably. Currently, have clearly improved the situation and the probable lack of action by the ECB after Thursday's meeting results in sale of German bonds, and this is reflected into an increase in their yields and strengthening of the euro.

In addition, Spain sold bonds 5Y Gov. Bond highest price since July 2005. Yields declined to 2.72%. During the same auction in November was 2.87%. You can see that the capital securities will more and more southern countries.

Yield of U.S. 10Y Gov. Bond reached 2.87% on Thursday, the highest level since Sept. 18. Interestingly, in recent times there is a sizeable "steepening" of the curve for the dollar: yields at the long end - rise, while a short end is not.

In fact, just before the Fed's decision of 18 September 10Y yield Gov. Bond was 2.85% and FRA18x24  was 1.05% . Now, it is respectively 2.88% and 0.71%! This explains why We still do not see the strengthening of the dollar. But if the Fed actually reduced the QE, FRA rates also would increase and the dollar strengthened.


regards,
oscarjp

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