Monday 16 December 2013

total fail of the European Union

hello,

Greek Prime Minister Samaras today confirmed the information that has long circulated on the market. Greece, will ask the international lenders for partial debt cancellation, just as happened in 2011. Details still do not know, do not know also whether it was about as big cut as in 2011 (74%). In this rather Troika will not agree.

The key to this issue is a matter of achieving primary budget surplus by Greece. Eurostat will assess at this angle in April next year. Samaras does not hide that he would like to debt reduction achieved by the spring of next year, even before the elections to the European Parliament, which will be held in May next year. It is difficult to guess on what basis Samaras thought that before the parliamentary elections, whoever agrees to cut the debt of Greece. Samaras ruled out while the third signing the program bailout.

One sentence: we do not want to save more, we want more to borrow and later cut our debt because we can not pay it.

another country, which awaits a similar scenario:

IRELAND:

"Ireland's government debt, as a percentage of the value of the economy, jumped more than any other European country's in 2013 year."

"The stark data from Europe's statistics office Eurostat shows that the country's debt-to-GDP ratio surged 7.7 percentage points in the first quarter."

"Ireland's debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 125.1 pc in the first quarter. Figures released by the Central Statistics Office last week showed that the quarterly deficit amounted to 13.8 pc – far in excess of the 7.6 pc target that the Government must meet this year as laid down under European rules."

PORTUGAL:

"Portugal’s debt will increase to 127.8 percent of gross domestic product this year from 124.1 percent in 2012, more than the country’s statistics institute reported six months ago."

"The National Statistics Institute said in a March 28 report that debt was forecast to be 122.4 percent of GDP in 2013 after reaching 123.6 percent in 2012. The budget deficit last year was 6.4 percent of GDP, the same as reported in March, the Lisbon-based institute said today in a statement about the European Union’s excessive-deficit procedure."

"The budget deficit narrowed to 7.1 percent of GDP in the first half from 7.8 percent in the first half of 2012 as tax revenue increased, the institute said in another report. The deficit narrowed to 6.1 percent in the 12 months through June from 7 percent in the 12 months through March."

ITALY:

"Italy’s debt will reach a postwar record this year as the recession-hit country borrows to contribute to bailouts and pay arrears to suppliers."

"The public debt will rise to 130.4 percent of gross domestic product in 2013 from 127 percent last year"

SPAIN:

"as Reuters reports, Spain's debt-to-GDP has hit 93.4% - the highest level in more than a century."

Unfortunately, I say this with great sorrow but the European Union has has suffered the total defeat. None of the existing tools, with the aim of improving the economic situation of all the eurozone countries do not have the desired effects.

In case of return of fear on the markets, the rapid rise in bond yields could result in loss of ability to repay current liabilities, which could lead to the loss of liquidity by these countries, and without the intervention of the ECB's lead to bankruptcy.

In case of limitation of QE on Thursday and start tapering by the Fed, I think most will drain money from the markets characterized by the greatest debt.

what's your opinion ? if you d not agree with me - say it :)

regards,
oscarjp

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